India gets colder (and hotter)

While India has seen a number of record-breaking warm spells in the recent decades, there have also been a number of record-breaking cold waves in the country, despite mumblings about global warming.

The analysis, led by Raju Mandal and Susmitha Joseph, scientist of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), took into account the number of cold wave events in the last seven decades, from 1951 to 2022[1]. They found that more cold wave days were observed in the recent decades compared to the previous ones.

“In the recent decade, more cold wave days have been observed across the central and eastern parts,” Mandal explained: “In Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and also some areas of northwest India such as Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi. Over the central and eastern parts of the country, the average number of cold wave days increased by more than five days per decade, and even more by over 15 days, in some places during the 2011-2021 period”.

On average, these regions used to record 2 to 5 cold wave days per 10 years during most decades from 1951 to 2011, but this rose to nearly 5 to 15 days in the last decade (ending 2021).

Even in built-up areas, where the Urban_Heat_Island-effect will be a negating factor, the data also showed that cold waves days in Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi have increased to 5 to 10 per decade during the last 20-year period vs the average of 2 to 5 in the previous decades.

The study found that the longest cold waves – more than 60% - that occured during the last eigth decades were associated with La Niña conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Mandal: “We wanted to understand through the study if there can be a reduction in cold wave events amidst a global warming scenario. We, however, found that occurrences of cold wave events have continued even under the general warming scenarios.”

So, even the climate doesn't like Indians. The conditions in the country get more extreme, where the hot periods get even hotter and the cold periods get even colder.

[1] Raju Mandal and Susmitha Joseph: Diagnostics and real-time extended range prediction of cold waves over India in Climate Dynamics - 2023